The Paris 2024 Olympics has just begun.
This year, athletes from 206 countries will compete for 329 gold medals. How will the medal table shape up?
Theoretically, as a country’s consumers spend more on sports, their performance in the Olympics should improve. We tested this theory for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics using our data on consumer spending, and our projections were roughly one gold medal off the official count.
Ahead of the Paris 2024 games, World Data Lab has used its data on projected consumer spending on sporting goods and services for 2024, along with the influence of the host country, to predict this year’s gold medal standings.
Figure 1 – Our projected results for the 2024 Paris Olympics (left) compared to the Tokyo 2020 standings (right).
If you are interested in gaining access to forecasted consumer spending for 180 countries, you can try so now free here.
No. 1: USA – 49 Gold Medals – $112 billion consumer sports services spending in 2024
Team USA is set to achieve its most successful Olympics on foreign soil, surpassing the 48 gold medals won in London 2012. With stars like Noah Lyles (track), Simone Biles (gymnastics), and Katie Ledecky (swimming), expect a dominant performance. This should come as no surprise, as the US spends more on sports services than the other top nine countries combined.
No. 2: China – 37 Gold Medals – $27 billion
China aims to challenge the US for the top spot but is projected to fall short. Will China secure the number two spot for the third time in the last four Olympics? Their sports services spending suggests they have a good chance with a projected spending of $27 billion in 2024.
No. 3: Great Britain – 26 Gold Medals – $16 billion
Team Great Britain expects another successful Olympics, aiming for their fourth consecutive 20+ gold medal campaign since hosting in 2012. Our model agrees! With just a seventh of the US’s spending, Great Britain manages to win gold medals at a discount.
No. 4: France – 21 Gold Medals – $9 billion
As hosts, France aims to prove their Olympic prowess. They haven’t been in the top five for 76 years, but they’re looking to surpass 20 gold medals for the first time since 1900. Despite relatively low consumer spending on sports services, their role as hosts and past government investment should give them a considerable boost in the medal table.
No. 5: Germany – 15 Gold Medals – $10 billion
After a disappointing Tokyo 2020, where Germany fell to 9th on the medal table, they aim to return to familiar territory with a 5th place finish. Germany has finished 5th in three Olympics this century. Their sizable spending on sports services indicates optimism about a successful Olympics.
No. 6: Japan – 15 Gold Medals – $5.4 billion
Japan, the big winners of the 2020 Olympics, are predicted to see a drop in their gold medal count, returning to pre-Tokyo 2020 levels. However, with only around half the spending of Germany, Japan is still poised to outperform their consumer investment and attain double-digit gold medals.
No. 7: Australia – 13 Gold Medals – $5.0 billion
Australia, known for its swimming prowess, aims to continue their success from Tokyo 2020. However, predictions suggest they will win four fewer gold medals this year. Their performance will largely depend on their swimmers’ ability to compete with Team USA.
No. 8: South Korea – 11 Gold Medals – $4.0 billion
As the one newcomer in this year’s top 10, South Korea is already off to a blazing start, with Lim Si-hyeon, South Korean archer, setting the first world record of the Paris 2024 Olympics. Can South Korea carry this momentum through the games and achieve a top 10 finish? Their spending suggests they have the ability to keep up with the likes of Australia and Japan.
No. 9: Italy – 10 Gold Medals – $3.1 billion
Italy, the sixth-winningest nation in the Olympics, always seems to be a wildcard in where they will get their medals, the most surprising in recent years being Marcell Jacobs’ 100m gold in Tokyo 2020. History has shown that Italy can win big, even with less spending than some of its regional competitors.
No. 10: Netherlands – 9 Gold Medals – $2.5 billion
The Netherlands, the smallest country among the top 10, consistently punches above its weight. Specializing in cycling, our model sees the Netherlands almost matching their gold medal tally from Tokyo 2020.
| Country | Gold |
| USA | 49 |
| China | 37 |
| Great Britain | 26 |
| France | 21 |
| Germany | 15 |
| Japan | 15 |
| Australia | 13 |
| South Korea | 11 |
| Italy | 10 |
| Netherlands | 9 |
| Hungary | 8 |
| New Zealand | 6 |
| Canada | 5 |
| Spain | 5 |
| Iran | 5 |
| Jamaica | 5 |
| Kenya | 5 |
| Croatia | 4 |
| Brazil | 3 |
| Switzerland | 3 |
| Czechia | 3 |
| Denmark | 3 |
| Poland | 3 |
| Ukraine | 3 |
| Uzbekistan | 3 |
| South Africa | 3 |
| Belgium | 2 |
| Bahamas | 2 |
| Cuba | 2 |
| Ecuador | 2 |
| Ethiopia | 2 |
| Georgia | 2 |
| Greece | 2 |
| Kazakhstan | 2 |
| Norway | 2 |
| Serbia | 2 |
| Slovenia | 2 |
| Sweden | 2 |
| Uganda | 2 |
| Argentina | 1 |
| Austria | 1 |
| Azerbaijan | 1 |
| Bulgaria | 1 |
| Bahrain | 1 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 1 |
| Colombia | 1 |
| Algeria | 1 |
| Fiji | 1 |
| Hong Kong | 1 |
| Indonesia | 1 |
| Ireland | 1 |
| Israel | 1 |
| Lithuania | 1 |
| Latvia | 1 |
| Philippines | 1 |
| Puerto Rico | 1 |
| Qatar | 1 |
| Romania | 1 |
| Singapore | 1 |
| Slovakia | 1 |
| Thailand | 1 |
| Tajikistan | 1 |
| Trinidad & Tobago | 1 |
| Tunisia | 1 |
| Turkey | 1 |
| Taiwan | 1 |
| Venezuela | 1 |